21世纪海上丝绸之路

陈鹏·成都中医药大学
2016-02-28
阅读数951

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                        The influence of the development strategy of maritime silk road


                                                            Summary
Proposed Maritime Silk Road Strategy in the 21st Century China's economic development wi
ll undoubtedly have a huge role in promoting,but also a measure of the economy an important indicator of a country's overall competitiveness, the city's. In addition, the economic strategicconcept "21stCentury Silk Road economic belt" is the State President Xi Jinping during his visit to four Central Asian countries for the first time, also in the area all the way proposed strategy, detailingthe construction of theeconomic zone and maritime Silk Road Strategy Theconcept, which is a natio nal strategy guiding significance of China in recent years raised.
The Economic Strategy of the Silk Road gives the new economic strategy significance, was p
ut forth by a high degree of concern related fields, which not only directly related to the adjustment of industrial structure, economic development and other issues, but also affects the economy of China and along the country's , diplomatic cooperation, so in-depth interpretation of the Silk Road Strategy of economic analysisof the impact the "New Silk Road economic belt" Construction on China's economic development is of great practical significance.
Interpretation of the results of this paper,and strategic significance "Maritime Silk Road of t
he 21st century economy with" construction, and a detailed overview of the development prospects of the manufacturing sector. Therefore, we choose the 21st century, we have chosen the Maritime Silk Road Strategy for GDP growth rate, the contribution rate of employment, as well as the contribution rate of thetotal retail sales of social impact indicators as its contribution rate, the greater the influence .
Finally, we use three indicators weighted thoughtwould fit the above influence index is a C, t
o determine the weight of these three target weightvalue by AHP, in order to determine a compre
hensive strategy for the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st century China's economy Impact.
Keywords: 21st Century MaritimeSilk Road Along the way strategy economic
Along the way strategy Investment multiplier effect Linear regression equation
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1. THE PROBLEM REPEAT
In October 2013, Chinese President xi jinping,puts forward the constructionof economic
zone and the strategic concept of maritime silk road."Area" depicted China as a rising regional
powers.Use the history of theancient silk roadsigns, exalted banner of peaceful development,
actively develop along with the economic partnership between countries,and create interest, fate
and political mutual trust, economic integration and culture include the responsibility of the
community.
It tried to its own economic leading role expand westward to Iran, and even eastern
Europe.China's investment in land and sea silk road will bring all involved countrieseconomic
benefits.
Itis part of the national strategic development, promote the cooperation between China and
asean and solve all problems.Then on the basis of the association of south-east Asian nations
(asean), with points available to a broad stage.
Please address the following questions
1. Please consult the relevant data, analysis of the maritime silk road in the 21st century the
historical context
2.Select a perspective and an industry to analyze related economic indicators, andto
establish a number
Modelto study the development strategy of the maritime silk road in China or the short-term
effects of othercountries.
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2. THE PROBLEM ANALYSIS
2.1 Problem one
The related information is required, the maritime silk road inthe 21st century put forward the
historical context.
Since the qin and handynasties opened China's maritime silk road, has been the important
economic and cultural exchanges between the east and the west communication Bridges, and
southeastAsiasince ancient times is important hub and part of the Marine silk road.Xi general
secretary based on history, focusing on China and the associationof south-east Asian nations
(asean) to establish a strategic partner the tenth anniversary of the new historical starting point, to
further deepen cooperation between China and asean, build more closely the fateof the
community, for the parties and the area for the welfareof the people put forward the strategy of
"Marine silk road" of the 21st century.
"Area" is set by thenational development strategy, it is necessarily required in today's
international situation.Maritime silk road inthe 21st century in theanalysis of the historical
background, we should combine the characteristics of the tang dynasty, the ancient maritime silk
road andthe situation of compares and analyzesthe historical background of modern China. We
consider two main aspects: economic and basic national conditions.From multiple points of
concrete analysis, Chinaadopted a policyof "area" of the country is the inevitable outcome caused
by these factors.
2.2 Problem two
Problem two asked to select an Angle and an industryto analyze related economic indicators,
and to establish a number
Modelto study the development strategy of the maritime silk road in China or the short-term
effects of othercountries.
Ontology in the second q need to be aware of two parts,respectively isthe "industry" and
"economic indicators.This two parts selection results will determinethe research difficulty of this
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problem.Wechoose whichone should be specific to the industry of industrial production of what
products.The selection of economic indicators shoulds not be too much, but must be the most can
reflect the maritime silk route to its effects.
Pharmaceutical industrial products import and export trade is one of the factors of our
country economic growthto maintain a goodmomentum.Economic growth accelerated the
medicine chemical industry further globalization, integration, relianceon raw materials and end
market is getting worse.Chinaplays an important role in this transformation.In order to
consolidate the position in themarket, China put forwardthe "area" economic path,with the
development of "Marine silk road" banner, to "area" all the way along the national output
chemical products to develop the domestic economy.
Here we select pharmaceutical industry asthe research industry, before and after comparison
and analysis data forAngle,with GDP, CPI and import and export total, total retail sales of social
consumer goods, five economic indicators to analyze employment question 2.
We explore the developmentstrategy of the maritime silk road in China or in other countries
can be predicted by short-term impact assessment model to predict countryafter implementation
of policy and not been implemented after the policy of national situation and comparative
analysis.
3. Model assumes
Suppose the statistical data are within the range of allowable error.
Ignoremarginal propensity to consume various years (MPC) wave action, assuming the inves
tment multiplier (K) is relatively stable.
Suppose all the way along the strategic impact on the role of investment income only because,
ignoring the impact of otheracts of government purchases and so on.
As used herein, the investment research along the way belong to autonomous investment rath
er than investment planning caused investment triggered, can not be considered "accelerator" facto
r, calculated on the principle of direct application of the multiplier effect of its GDP.
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Ignoring the international situation and the surrounding environmentand the impact of recent nati
onal introduction of relevant economic and political policies of the country along the way policy.
4.Symbols andmeaning
Symbol meaning
Investment multiplier
Investment increment
marginal propensity to consume
GDPZ growth increased pulled $on e
hundred million from the number
t period of employment
t Gross domestic product (GDP)
Number of years
Changes in per capita consumption
Per capita consumption
Per capita consumption of initial
level
Per capita income
Total retail sales of social consumer
goods
K
△I
MPC
N
Nt
GDPt
Y
△n
N
C 0
Z
M
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5. The establishment of model and
solution
5.1 the answer of Question one
Problem a requirement put forward by the analysis of the maritime silk road inthe 21st
century history we mainly from the two aspects are analyzed: 1, the tang dynasty, themaritime
silk road.2, China's modern national conditions.Both have a common point - the economy.
5.1.1 Create a maritime silk routecause analysis of the tang dynasty
The silk road of tang dynasty emperor taizong, reach peak in the tang dynasty the emperor
period.Happened in immediately Tang Chaochu, east turkestan Chen bing WeiShui, changan
crisis.Emperor taizong to realize national strength is not enough, difficult to separate against east
turkistan.So on the surface ofeast turkestanweakness, to the various states in trade, to develop the
silk road.The period of the emperor the turkic basic be pacified, the emperor taizong and tang will
datang power to the climax, and was recognized as day khan from various states [1].The tang
dynasty, the silk road starting pointof the diversification, yangzhou, guangzhou, xian, etc., leading
to different directions.Extends to the Iberian peninsula, the Persian gulf.
The silk road is a road tothe revival of the tang dynasty, and now we havea look at it through to the
tang dynastynational strength change of the effects of the tang dynasty.
TIME Households Counting number
Emperor yangdi cause two
years (606)
8907546 households
46,019,956 persons
SuiGong emperor YiNing two
years (618)
1,800,000 households
Tang Gaozu 'seven years (624)
2,190,000 households
Emperor taizong dynasty
thirteen years (639)
3,041,871 households 12,351,681 persons
Emperor taizong dynasty
twenty-two years (648)
3,600,000 households
Tang Gao Zongyong badge
three years (652)
3,800,000 households
So tang kaiyuan 20 years (733)
7,861,236 households 45,431,265 persons
The tang dynasty tianbIao the
8,348,395 households 45,311,272 persons
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first year (742)
Tang dynasty tianbao thirteen
years (754)
9,069,154 households 52,880,488 persons
Tang dynasty tianbao fourteen
years (755)
8,914,790 households 52,919,390 persons
Tang Su ZongQian yuan three
years (760)
2,933,134 households 16,990,386 persons
Table 1 Emperor yangdi to Tang Su population statistics
In ancient China'spopulation is a measureof national power.We can see from the emperor
yangdi cause two years tothree years tang Gao Zongyongbadge number population growth is
slow, when the development of the silk road to the peak of its population number has doubled.
Look at the silk road after implementation of the tang dynasty fiscalincome:
Chart 1 The silk road after implementation of the tang dynasty financial income
The emperor tang wude seven years to taizong dynasty two decades between the central
fiscal revenue growth is slow, in the middle of the tang Gao Zongyong badge period financial
growth isvery considerable.
The opening of the maritime silk route has had a huge effect on power increases the tangdynasty,
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tang dynasty, openinclusive of foreign policy to attract the direction of different countries to
conduct exchanges, leading to the development of the silkroute to the west of the one-wayroute
into the tang empire centered around the pomp of radiation
5.1.2 China's modern national conditions analysis[2]
Now our country isfaced with the economic transformation of the development bottleneck,
after entering the new century, especially after the 2008 global financial crisis, China's role in the
global economy began to highlight, political status has improved significantly and to be seen as a
superpower.As a result, the United States in establishing a "G2" (G2) or inthe United States of
(Chimerica), to a "return to the asia-pacific" or "towardsAsia" (the pivot toAsia), and in 2013
changed to "rebalancing" of the Pacific.Objectively, rebalancing policy is a traditional
Anglo-Saxon regional strategy, different fromthe cold war to Sue containment strategy.China is
obviously the main object of rebalancing.From the aspects of economy, due to the outbreak of the
economic crisis, the economic development ofour country faces major challenges, as well as the
impact of industrial structure of our country's economy, therefore,in November 2008,the
government launched the "four trillion plan [2]" the negative effect of growing: a lotof excess
capacity, Banks non-performing loan ratioincreased significantly, the slow adjustmentof the
economic structure, foreign exchange reserves growth difficult to check.
The key to Money to measure
Low-rent housing areas, turn shantytowns into
new housing areas suchas housing
About 400 billion yuan
Rural road ofwater and electricity gas room
and so on people's livelihood engineering and
infrastructure
About 370 billion yuan
Railways, highways, airports, water
conservancy andother major infrastructure
construction and city network reconstruction
About 1.5 trillion yuan
Health care, education,culture and other social
undertakings development
About 150 billion yuan
Energy conservation and emissions reduction
and ecological engineering
About 210 billion yuan
Independent innovation and structural
adjustment
About 370 billion yuan
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Post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction About 1 trillion yuan
Chart 2At roughly four trillionplan
From the political pointof view, for China, China's main need to cultivate and develop the
European andAmerican markets outside to maintain the growth of foreign trade, transfer of
surplusproductioncapacity, reduce foreign exchange reserves.And friendly countries share the
achievements of China's economic growth and further mutual cooperation, toresist "the balance"
is undoubtedly awin-win choice, worth a priority.
Look from its development in our country, after 30 years of reform and opening up, China's
reliance on U.S. and European export markets and foreign direct investment driven growthmodel
is unsustainable and dependent on foreign oil and gas resources, mineral resources in our country
is very high, especially the reform and opening up of eastern and western unbalanced development
pattern has also become the resistance ofsustained economic growth.
Import the
project
Crude oil Crude oil Crude oil Crude oil
Share of shipping 52% 97.53% 92.18% 92.20%
Chart 3 Partof the industry is highly dependent on abroad
A
particular
year
55690 61219 64130 76936 95002 116837 129286
In the
east
28316 30899 30350 38127 46384 53229 55038
In the
middle
11614 17218 13760 15805 18860 22262 25956
in the
west
55690 61219 64130 76936 95002 116837 129286
Chart 4 2000-2006 east Midwest list ofGDP
In case we can see now the main problem in China:
1) excess production capacity,excessforeignexchange assets.
2)China's oil and gas resources, the high dependencyof foreign mineral resources.
3) the asia-pacific balance policy.
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We is nothard to find the current state of our country to some extent, and the conditions of
the tang dynasty years have asimilar degree.So we can through the follow ancient maritime silk
road change state of adverse situation!Face the same opponents (east turkistan) in the United
States, seeking to change!
First of all, we need to breakthe peacein the asia-pacific "rebalancing" the strategy of
"tights", near to construct covers large surrounding the regional politicaland security of network
economy, the economy is a main fieldis area surrounding the center of gravity.To construct
China's own security space and mechanism, and starting from the surrounding is alsorealistic
choice.
Secondly through open to around in the western region and eastern Midwest three regional
linkage development method in order to solve the problem of unbalanced regional development,
construct the economic zone.
Our country with more than 30 sea route, you can access the world more than 1200 ports in
150 countries, sea passage to 90% of China's foreign trade volume.At the same time they are also
the ways to strengthen the exchanges and cooperation with the international, through which can
promote the growth of our country's economy, improve the international competitiveness and
credibility, at the same time it also promoted the between countries economic and cultural
exchanges and cooperation.
The analysis shows that the establishment of maritime silk road in the 21st century is the
inevitable of The Times,soour chairman xi jinping in early September 2013visit to kazakhstan,
proposed the construction covers nearly 3 billion people of the silk road economic belt ", in early
October when he visit to Indonesia, proposed the construction togetherwith the asean countries
"Marine silk road" in the 21st century.Around and at the end of October the unprecedented
diplomatic work symposium, determine the strategic goal of the next 10 years foreign work, work,
ideas andimplementation plan. In March 2015, 28, the national development and reform
commission, ministry offoreign affairs, the ministry of commerce jointly issued the "push to build
the silk road economic belt and the 21st century the vision and action of the Marine silk road"
marks the 21st century maritime silk road officially on the right track!
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5.2 Theanswersof Problem two
Problem two choose a perspective and an industry to analyze related economic indicators,
and establish a mathematics
Modelto study the development strategy of the maritime silk road in China or the short-term
effects of othercountries.
The 21stcentury, the maritime silk road model of strategic contribution to GDP growth.
From theAngle of economics, the economicstrength level evaluation mainly through the gross
national product (GNP), total retail sales of social consumer goods, the employment rate to
evaluate the three aspects.To evaluate the short-term effects of China's future economic
development, we also from the threeaspects, thedefinition of a "influenceindex" c, establish an
evaluation system are asfollows:
Which is suitable for the contribution rate of GDP growth, b2 b1 contribution to employment,
b3 retail sales of consumer goods for the society contribution, a corresponding weights of the three
aspects, 100 for the correction coefficient.
The following three indicators analyzed one by one in the system:
According to the theory ofmultiplier [4], the increaseof injection can lead to the increase of
national income, but caused by the increase in national income will be greater than the initial
injection.Multiplier is the amount of the changesare caused by the change of national incomeand
the ratio between the initial injection.The increase of the investment multiplier change, lies in the
various sectors of the economy are interrelated, a sector of an investment will not only increase
the income of the department, and willeven pin is caused in the national economy departmentsto
reflect, increasing the investment and income of other departments, national income hasdoubled.
The maritime silk route strategy mainly by government investment, expand foreign trade,
strengthen internationalpolitical and cultural and economic exchanges, it does not belong to
government spending.So we choose Keynes formula:
100 ) b a + b a + b a ( = c 3 3 2 2 1 1     5.0
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So, according to the demand of allpossible variables, we can get: the change of national income =
investment multiplier effect + government spending multiplier effect, the government income
multiplier effect + + money multiplier effectof foreign trade multiplier effect
Delta said GDP per capita income increment type, K as the investment multiplier, delta
investment, I said the MPC said marginal propensity to consume.According to the definition of the
MPC, are:
MPC=△N/△GDP 6.3
Among them, the delta N said changesin per capita consumption.According to the simple
consumption function model are as follows:
N=N0+MPC*D 6.4
N=634.02+0.703D 6.5
Among them, N as the per capita consumption, D as per capita income.
Using the MATLAB software regress order to solve the linear regression equation between them is
as follows:
parameters Parameter estimates Parameters of the confidenceinterval
NO 634.02 [-348.28412 1616.31812]
MPC 0.703 [0.65802 0.74749]
F2=0.9969 G=1630.85 P<0.00001
Chart 5 Regression parameter table
To findout in the nextfew years inthe 21st century maritime silk strategic contribution to
our country economy and the forecast for economic growth.
See from table 5 data
2
F =0.9969,The fit of the clear well.Although the confidence interval
of parameter N0 containzero, but the confidence interval of theMPC parameters does not contain
zero, and the MPC is we solve the problem, therefore, as a whole,the model isavailable.
So we concluded
MPC = 0.703
Conform to the actual situation of China developed the MPC will generally between 0.75
0.98MPC generation into the 6.2 type can be concluded: K = 3.37
6.2 MPC) - 1/(1 = K
6.1 I △ K = GDP △ 
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According to the Chinese bureau of statistics data show that from 2005 to 2013, China's
foreign investment is 91.2987624 trillion yuan, thedelta I = 91298.624.The value and the K value
obtained in 6.1 type
△GDP=307676.2929
Through the data on the net,we can findout from 2005 to 2013, China's GDP, as shown in
figure
Sothat we can get the total amount of China's GDP in 2005 to 2005 is 254.57978 trillion
yuan, calculated before put forward to lead the way strategy the contribution rate to GDP value:
b 1 =△GDP/GDP =12.08%
Thus, in the implementation of the 21stcentury strategic maritime silk road, has a positive
influence on the development of Chinese economy, GDP growth contribution rate will be
increased, for the future is to promote the development of the economy.
5.2 the maritime silk road in the 21st century strategic contribution to employment growth model
According to the employment elasticity of thoughts of economics, and labor productio
n theory, with the increase of employment and the ratio of GDP growth, measured in the
21st century, the maritime silk route strategy impact on employment. For the convenience
of calculation,
We make
t t t t t P =S -S -1/GDP -GDP -1(t is a year)
Which S t t years of employment, says GDP t said t years GDP value
map 1 Gross domestic product (GDP) forecast
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Nearly nine years is given in the table from growth and GDP growth ratio. Can be seen from the
data in the table, the most nearly nine years of fluctuation is bigger, especially in 2013, P t negative,
not can choosea representative value. And because we calculated from 2005 to 2013, the statistics of a
period of time
In this period of time average of P t are as follows:
Among them, P is a one hundred million yuan GDP growthstimulating employment
increase number.Y refers to the number of years.Among them, 2013 statistics change chan
ge is bigger, leave
p
均 =0.06785
According toour definition of n are not issued in all the strategicemployment of inv
estment are as follows
△N= p
均× △GDP
6.2
According totheproblem of the desires of a delta GDP = 30.7676299 trillion yuan, is ca
lculate d:
. △N=2875.83 Million
So, all the way without a area strategy the contribution rate of employment
B2=△N/N2013=13.4% 6.3
YEAR
GDP(YI
YUAN )
GDP
INCREA
SE
NUMBER OF
EMPLOYEES(WAN
REN)
FORM THE
INCREMEN
TAL
Pt
2005 185895.8 74647
2006 217656.6 31760.8 74978 331 0.0066
2007 268019.4 50362.8 75321 343 0.0070
2008 316751.7 48732.3 75564 243 0.0084
2009 345629.2 28877.5 75828 264 0.0042
2010 408903 63273.8 76105 277 0.0037
2011 484123 75220 76420 315 0.0063
2012 534123 50000 76704 284 0.0053
2013 588018.8 53895.8 76977 273 -0.0005
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Therefore, we in the prediction of the 21st century strategic maritime silkroad impac
t on employment, should exclude volatile data, optimization. Thefollowing table isto pre
dictthedata
year GDP GDP growth Workers (ten thousand) From the incremental Pt
2014.00 636138.70 77253.00
2015.00 681304.55 45165.85 79561.40 2308.40 0.05
2016.00 731721.08 50416.53 81564.20 2002.80 0.04
2017.00 786600.17 54879.09 83054.70 1490.50 0.03
2018.00 845595.18 58995.01 85245.40 2190.70 0.04
2019.00 909860.41 64265.23 86412.50 1167.10 0.02
2020.00 973550.64 63690.23 88412.40 1999.90 0.03
2021.00 1041699.19 68148.55 89521.70 1109.30 0.02
2022.00 1151618.13 109918.94 91410.20 1888.50 0.02
Will predict data generation into the formula 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 can be concludedthat the 21st
century in the maritime silk route strategy has contributed b2 = 19.3% of employment, but in the
prediction data of relative volatility cause contribution rate is not very correct, but also reflected
the maritime silk road in the 21st century strategy can promote the growth of employment in our
country, so asto promote the steady andrapid growth of GDP, had a positive effect.
Figuregiven is nearly nine years given China's employment growth curve is nearly nine
years the employment growth curve in China
Figureis given China's employment growth curve nearly 9 years
map 2 China's employment growth curve
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5.2.3 5.2.3requires strategic maritime silk road in the 21st century on the contribution rate of
total retail sales of social consumer goods increase model.
We useGM (1, 1) model to predict all the wayfrom 2005 to 2013not area strategy in the
21st century, namely the maritime silk route policy underthe condition of total retail sales of
social consumer goods, and then calculate the expo held on thecontributionof total retail sales of
social consumer goods.
a. establish maritime silk route strategy of GM (1, 1) model.
Through the Internet search,the first thing we got from2005 to 2013, total retail sal
es of social consumer goods:
Shown in the following table
map 3From 2005to 2013, total retail sales of socialconsumer goods
Record data from2005 to 2013 for the raw data:
X
( 0 ) (1)= 68352.6
X
( 0 )
(2)=79145.2 X
( 0 ) (3)=93571.6
X
( 0 ) (4)=114830.1
X
( 0 ) (5)= 132678.4
X
( 0 ) (6)=1569981.4
X
( 0 ) (7 )= 183918.6
X
( 0 ) (8)=210307
X
( 0 ) (9)=242842.8
(1) the level than:
R
( 0) (K)=X (0) (K-1)/X (0) (K)
R (0) (K) =(1.157,1.182,1.227,1.155,1.183,1.171,1.143,1.154)
Because of R (K) in the interval [0.778, 1.284], so can make GM (1,1) model.
(2) the raw data accumulation.
X (1) (1)=x (0) (1)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total retail sales of consumer goods
17
X (1) (2)= x (0) (2)+ X (1) (1)
X (1) (3)= x (0) (3)+ X (1) (2)
X (1) (4)= x (0) (4)+ X (1) (3)
X (1) (5)= x (0) (5)+ X (1) (4)
X (1) (6)= x (0) (6)+ X (1) (5)
X (1) (7)= x (0) (7)+ X (1) (6)
X (1) (8)= x (0) (8)+ X (1) (7)
X (1) (9)= x(0)(9)+ X (1) (8)
The data matrix H U
Z (1) (2)=1/2(X (1) (1)+ X (1) (2))=107925.2
Z (1) (3)=1/2(X (1) (2)+ X (1) (3))=254875.6
Z (1) (4)=1/2(X (1) (3)+ X (1) (4))=487123.5
Z (1) (5)=1/2(X (1) (4)+ X (1) (5))=654872.4
Z (1) (6)=1/2(X (1) (5)+ X (1) (6))=945321.5
Z (1) (7)=1/2(X (1) (6)+ X (1) (7))=1045812.6
Z (1) (8)=1/2(X (1) (7)+ X (1) (8))= 1264587.5
Z (1) (9)=1/2(X (1) (8)+ X (1) (9))= 1668742.6
According to the law of the GM (1, 1) GM(1,1)
H=(-107925.2 -254875.6 -487123.5 -654872.5 -945321.5 -1045812.6 -1264587.5 -1668742.6)
U=( 68352.6 79145.2 93571.6 114830.1 132678.4 1569981.4 183918.6 210307
242842.8)
(JL)=(HTH)(-1)HTU(-4.542 344875.8)
X (0) K-4.542Z (1) K=344875.8
An albino equation for
LX (1) /t - 4.542x(1)=344875.8
Take X
(1)
(0)= X
(0)
(1) = 68352.6, time response function
X (1) (k+1)=((x (1) (0)-
L
J
)
ak
e  +
L
J
=156981
4.542k
e -1945245
Thus we can predict the maritime silk route strategy in the 21st century, under th
e influence of the change of total retailsales of social consumer goods in our country in
thefuture
as shown inthe figure
18
The 21stcentury, the maritime silk road in total retail sales of social consumer goods
industry:
Set up by amodel, we can find out in the 21st century maritime silk road in total r
etail sales ofsocial consumer goods industry
The above data shows thatin the 21st century, the maritime silk route strategy pull the total
social retail, has carried on the quantitative, to the role that the contribution rate is 13%
5.4 to a value solving
Isvery important to determine the weighing values of assessmentindexes, if directly ask
an expert to give weights of eachindex, the result may be affected by the subjectivefac
tor is too large, so as to affect the scientific nature, in order to weaken the influence of
subjective factors, we adopt the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the index
weight, the method to give index, the relative importance between the two weights can be
calculated.
Based on the AHP method to establish judgment matrix: A=(
ij
a )n×n ,
ij
a >0;
ij
a =
1
ij
a
(I,j=1,2,3……n) Feature vector method, is used to determine the characteristics of matr
ix A vector V = {V 1 , V 2 , V 3 ,... V n }, and characteristic value of u, Calculate the consisten
cy index C I =
1
n
n
 

,consistency ratio CR=
CI
RI
=
( 1)
n
n RI
 
 
Compared with CR 0.1, i
f greater than 0.1, then modify the judgement matrix elements, until the CR < 0.1; Other
19
wise, the judgment matrix. Then the normalized eigenvector V, can be a weight W. Accor
ding to the AHP analytic hierarchy process (AHP), set up evaluation framework in the fol
lowing table:
Therefore, in the areaalong the strategy that China launched the strategy of the maritime silk
road in the 21st century, we from GDP, total retail sales of social consumer goods, the
employment rate of three indicators to has carried on the short-term forecast to our country
economy, it is concluded that the prediction data show that in the 21st century, the maritime silk
route strategycan promote our country's economic development level, the other in foreign trade,
we will help to poor countries, especially in Afghanistan and Syria, and to offer them a lot of
money and technology, medical and industrial products output,alleviate theirfinancial pressures,
improve their level of economic development, expand export trade.This is amutually beneficial
and win-win strategy policy.In brief, maritime silk road construction in the 21st century, to jointly
build political mutualtrust, economic integration, cultural tolerance and the fate of the community
and benefit community.
The strategic concept, has become our country an important part of thepattern of all-round
opening to the outside world.To play in China as a powerful radiation and driving force to the
world'ssecond largest economy, and expandthe peaceful development of the vast space, realize
the greatrejuvenation of the Chinese nation "Chinese dream", it is of great strategicsignificance.
The target layer Scheme layer
The influence of the maritimesilk routeto
economic (A)
The contribution of the maritime silk route to
GDP(B 1 )
The contribution of Marine silk road to
employment(B 2 )
Sea silk, the contribution rate of total retail
sales of social consumer goods(B 3 )
20
6. Model assessment and promotion
The advantages of the model:
1. The model a Keynesian multiplier effect of the economics,the theoretical basis for the
establishment of the model with support, and helpful to the analysis of the results of the model.
2. In thispaper, the modelcanalso be extendedto other similar events influence evaluation
system, and mainlyfor the economic impact of the major activities.
3. The whole model is to the influenceofthe maritimesilk route strategy in the 21st century
as compared with previous, makes the influence of the maritime silk route strategy in the 21st
century is more comparative and intuitive.
Model of faults:
1. The model used a Keynesian multiplieronlyconsider the relationship between total
investment and economic growth, does nottake into account the structure of the interaction
between various industries (sectors) relationship, therefore, a model has certain one-sidedness.
2. 5.2 the model onlyconsiders the effect on employment ofthe maritime silk route strategyin the
21st century, doesnot take into account the influence offoreign employees.
2. 3. Contrast analysis method can only come out a short time, time is too long will make the
data accuracyis not high, the error is bigger.
Promotion of the model
1. We now define "influence index" only two impact index, but there are many effect indexes
can be according to the weight added to an existing model, such as maritime silk road in the 21st
century strategic culture effect of indirect economic benefits, tourism consumption driven by
international political factors such as cultural exchanges, so as to further perfect evaluation model
and evaluation of the influence ofthe more accurate.
2. The investmentmultiplier effect, analytic hierarchy process (ahp), contrast analysis in
many the forecast of economicdata will be used in greatquantities, can more accurate analysis of
the changes of the economic data, canbe widely used in other neighborhood.
21
7. Reference
1) Mao Xinya, Midland new employment effects. Investmentof Shanghai World Expo. "China
Population Science", 2005 Supplement
2) Yang Road redmultiplier effect Chen Peiying Shanghai World Expo, "Shanghai Manageme
nt Discipline": 2003 third period, Page 9 - tenth page
3) Jiang Qiyuan, YE Jun mathematical model.- Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2003.8
4) Li Yining, western economics .-- Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2000.8
5) Qiushi Science and Technology .MATLAB 7.0 fromentry to the master .- Beijing: People's
Posts and Telecommunications Press, 2006.3
6) China Statistics Yearbook 2013
22
8. Appendix
Analysis% AHP matlab program
disp('请输–ه…¥هˆ¤;én(Aµکéں©çو)')¶ک
A=input('A=');
[n,n]=size(A);
x=ones(n,100);
y=ones(n,100);
m=zeros(1,100);
m(1)=max(x(:,1));
y(:,1)=x(:,1);
x(:,2)=A*y(:,1);
m(2)=max(x(:,2));
y(:,2)=x(:,2)/m(2);
p=0.0001;i=2;k=abs(m(2)-m(1));
while k>p
i=i+1;
x(:,i)=A*y(:,i-1);
m(i)=max(x(:,i));
y(:,i)=x(:,i)/m(i);
k=abs(m(i)-m(i-1));
end
a=sum(y(:,i));
w=y(:,i)/a;
t=m(i);
disp;disp(w);
disp;disp(t);
% CI=(t-n)/(n-1);RI=[0 0 0.52 0.89 1.12 1.26 1.36 1.41 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.54 1.561.58 1.59];
CR=CI/RI(n);
23
ifCR<0.10
disp;
disp('CI=');disp(CI);
disp('CR=');disp(CR);
else

 

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